Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.018084 0.020474 0.023062 0.026077 0.029491 0.033239 0.037669
2025-09-07 0.014472 0.017798 0.021709 0.026654 0.032743 0.040005 0.049336
2025-09-14 0.011858 0.015428 0.019870 0.025809 0.033554 0.043329 0.056635
2025-09-21 0.010212 0.013913 0.018733 0.025481 0.034705 0.046900 0.064307
2025-09-28 0.008797 0.012472 0.017450 0.024703 0.035028 0.049242 0.070382
2025-10-05 0.008220 0.012079 0.017497 0.025680 0.037763 0.055017 0.081651
2025-10-12 0.007635 0.011592 0.017331 0.026286 0.039963 0.060154 0.092404
2025-10-19 0.007154 0.011195 0.017235 0.026951 0.042259 0.065569 0.104000
2025-10-26 0.006542 0.010528 0.016657 0.026797 0.043242 0.069018 0.112789
2025-11-02 0.006046 0.009992 0.016219 0.026802 0.044442 0.072853 0.122469
2025-11-09 0.005511 0.009337 0.015528 0.026318 0.044772 0.075272 0.129964
2025-11-16 0.005198 0.009022 0.015358 0.026671 0.046507 0.080115 0.141936
2025-11-23 0.004809 0.008547 0.014892 0.026498 0.047361 0.083594 0.151968
2025-11-30 0.004585 0.008343 0.014873 0.027104 0.049635 0.089733 0.167326
2025-12-07 0.004155 0.007730 0.014080 0.026244 0.049174 0.090931 0.173675
2025-12-14 0.003848 0.007313 0.013601 0.025911 0.049638 0.093822 0.183416
2025-12-21 0.003508 0.006806 0.012913 0.025119 0.049157 0.094888 0.189691
2025-12-28 0.003431 0.006792 0.013146 0.026112 0.052198 0.102897 0.210348
2026-01-04 0.003311 0.006685 0.013189 0.026729 0.054540 0.109717 0.229187
2026-01-11 0.003205 0.006596 0.013260 0.027406 0.057049 0.117060 0.249729
2026-01-18 0.003016 0.006322 0.012938 0.027249 0.057822 0.120921 0.263238
2026-01-25 0.002858 0.006100 0.012705 0.027254 0.058929 0.125550 0.278786
2026-02-01 0.002664 0.005786 0.012255 0.026761 0.058922 0.127812 0.289300